What can we expect from the Mabnen incident? An interview with Professor Asaken Pietkane, head of the Advanced Strategy Analysis department of the SWA.

The so called Insorum Imbroglio events have almost shattered peace across the Galaxy. The Amarr Empire has declared open war to the Blood Raider Covenant and prepares what seems to be the first Amarrian invasion since Vak’Atioth. What can we expect for the following weeks from the other Empires?

The Amarrian answer has been quite direct: war. No need to search for hidden agendas here, Doriam II has decided the Blood Raider Covenant is too big a threat and have mobilized both his Navy and his loyal paramilitary groups for the task of removing them forever. The interesting question here is whether or not the Covenant was expecting and planning for such a massive response.

When it comes to the other four Empires, one seemingly small diplomatic incident now becomes rather important. As you may remember, roughly six weeks ago the Minmatar Republic officials lodged a formal complaint with CONCORD when Caldari Navy vessels docked at station in Matari-controlled space, thus effectively breaching article 37a of the Yulai Convention.

The higher echelons of Caldari diplomacy are obviously trying to avoid another such breach. Our State’s official response has been “this is an Amarrian problem”. Technically, it means the State will not consider this to be a “war”, but rather one Empire taking care of terrorist cells inside their sovereign territory.

The Minmatar Republic has been much more cautious, which should not be surprising. The cure they have sought for so long seems to be in the hands of a terrorist organization. Yet they are also impaired by Article 37a… mobilizing their Navy anywhere near Amarrian space could easily escalate into war if seen as a threat by the Amarrian Empire.

For the Gallente… it is easy to fall into comfortable stereotypes, but I would warn against confusing Foiritan’s reaction with indecision. This Insorum Imbroglio caught the Federation’s President at a very weak moment: right before an election, which he has every intention of making a re-election of course. Any wrong move he makes could be used against him by the other two candidates, costing him millions of votes. But as soon the process is over and the Federation speaks with one voice, things are to change for sure.

So, in your opinion, the other four powers will just wait and see what happens between Amarr and Covenant?

When it comes to State, Republic and Federation, one should remember that diplomacy is the art of saying something without actually saying it, and search for clues by watching those less constrained by interstellar treaties.

Minmatar and Caldari paramilitary groups are active inside Covenant space, with at least one clear goal: get a hold of the Covenant’s formula. As far official declarations go, none of the Empires is in possession of whatever it is that the Covenant sprayed over Mabnen and caused the rebellion.

Gallentean paramilitary presence on the area seems very low. Again, probably due to the internal strife caused by the upcoming election.

Would you say that the current scenario could lead to full scale intergalactic war?

To the shame of most military analysts, including of course myself, I have to say that nobody knows for certain.

For the last century, the galaxy has been in a delicate equilibrium where third parties have had extremely important influence on any conflict. What prompted the Gallente to make peace with Caldari was their contact with the Amarrians. In turn, it was the defeat against the Jovians that allowed the Minmatar to rebel first, and form their Republic later.

And in this intricate balance, a strong case could be made about the Amarrian Empire being the current source of stability in the galaxy. Not strong enough to dominate over all others, yet strong enough to deter total war between any other two powers.

Pre-Insorum, any simulation of full scale war contemplated one of the Empires making the first move, something extremely risky with so much at stake. Yet it turned out to be a terrorist organization with no territorial goals that threw the first stone.

If galactic destabilization was their goal, we have to admit that their aim was very good.